Expecting More Say
A Study of American Public Attitudes
on the Role of the Public In Government Decisions

Appendix A: The Case of the Impeachment Process

The tumultuous process that led to the impeachment of President Clinton offers a unique case study of how the public responded when the government acted in a way that was inconsistent with, and which the majority perceived as inconsistent with, the wishes of the majority. The majority not only opposed impeachment, but also perceived the majority as opposing it. The COPA poll was taken January 26-31, 1999, a critical moment in the process -- shortly after the House vote to impeach, but shortly before the Senate vote to acquit. Thus, at that moment, the discrepancy between the House impeachment and majority opposition was most salient. 

1 A strong majority believed the investigation of and the decision to impeach President Clinton were not supported by the majority of Americans and were not motivated by concerns for what was best for the country.

It appears that many Americans were aware of polls showing majority opposition to the conduct of the investigation of President Clinton and the decision to impeach. Asked about perception of the public’s attitudes, a strong majority expressed the view that the investigation and impeachment were carried out in opposition to the wishes of the majority:

• 69% said that throughout the Starr investigation and the process leading up to impeachment, the government behaved inconsistent with the wishes of the majority of the American public;
• 64% believed the majority of Americans disapproved of the House of Representatives vote to impeach President Clinton;
• 68% thought the majority of Americans opposed removing President Clinton from office. 

The probable causes of these perceptions of the government as out of step with the public are not hard to discern. At each of six key stages in the impeachment process from August 1998 to January 1999, the process took the direction that a majority opposed:

• Initiating Congressional hearings: After Clinton’s August 1998 television speech, 69% said Congress should not begin hearings on impeachment (“begin hearings,” 24%; Newsweek, August 1998).1 A Pew poll at the same time found 61% saying Clinton’s statement should "be enough to end the matter" (consider hearings, 32%).2
• The House Judiciary Committee’s public release of the videotape of Clinton’s grand jury testimony: All poll questions before the videotape was released in September 1998 showed a majority opposed to the release. In a Time/CNN poll (September 16-17), 67% called the release a "bad idea."3 The release itself on September 21 found little or no approval. On September 21, 61% said Congress’s release of the videotape was "wrong" (ABC).4 On September 22-23, in a CBS/New York Times poll, an overwhelming 78% said the release was "not necessary."5
• The opening of the formal impeachment inquiry by the House Judiciary Committee: In early October 1998, the full House of Representatives voted to authorize its Judiciary Committee to begin impeachment hearings. This move consistently was opposed by substantial majorities -- from 57% to 65% in four CBS News and CBS/New York Times polls in September.6 On October 7, 55% said they wanted their representative to vote against commencing hearings, while 40% said they wanted their representative to vote for commencing them (CBS).7
• The burying of the censure option: The possibility of a formal censure or reprimand of President Clinton by Congress, though much discussed in the media and in legislative corridors, never got a formal hearing that could lead to a vote in either the House or the Senate. From September 1998 to early January 1999, Gallup, CBS and The New York Times asked the public on more than 25 occasions whether it favored or opposed censure. Pluralities or majorities in the 46% to 60% range throughout this period favored it, and in December and January, support for censure was always 52% or higher.8 Despite this level of public interest, the censure option never made it to the floor of Congress.
• The House vote to impeach Clinton: In 1998, Gallup used a question that described the House and Senate steps of the impeachment process, in order to dispel the possible confusion that impeachment meant actual removal from office. Gallup found on seven occasions from October through December that more than 59% wanted their representative to vote against impeachment. When asked, in addition, whether respondents "felt that way strongly or somewhat," a 53% majority said they were strongly opposed (December 15-16, 1998). Only a 31-38% minority wanted a ‘yes’ vote.9 In questions that offered three alternatives -- a vote to impeach, censure or a fine or dropping the matter -- support for voting to impeach fell further, to 27% and 21% (both CBS/New York Times, December 1998).10
• The Senate's decision not to dismiss the case: On January 27, 1999, the Senate voted to continue the trial of President Clinton. A moderate to strong majority of the public wanted the trial to end. On January 7, a Time/CNN poll found that just 38% wanted the Senate to "proceed with the trial," while 59% wanted the Senate to "end it immediately."11 On January 24, that sentiment was even stronger. In a Gallup poll, 67% said the "Senate should vote to end the trial immediately."12 Even when reminded in a January 27 Gallup poll that the "Senate can only fulfill its Constitutional duties by continuing," a majority (52%) still wanted the trial to end (continue, 46%).13 

A strong majority believed that representatives who voted in favor of impeachment were not motivated by what is best for the country.  

Numerous polls also found the majority believed partisan political interests primarily motivated the investigation of and the decision to impeach the President. In August 1998, 59% thought "the investigation against Bill Clinton has more to do with partisan politics," while only 30% thought it had more to do with "getting to the truth" (The Los Angeles Times).14 In a poll conducted September 13 -- before the House Judiciary Committee hearings had even begun -- when asked to choose between two statements, 42% thought "Congress will consider the charges against President Clinton in a fair and balanced manner," while a 50% plurality already believed "Congress will primarily act in a partisan political manner when considering the charges" (The Los Angeles Times).15 In a September 1998 CBS News poll, 26% said, "Independent Counsel Kenneth Starr is mostly conducting an impartial investigation to find out if anything illegal occurred," while 63% said he "is mostly conducting a partisan investigation to damage Bill Clinton."16 In October 1998 Washington Post polls, 71% of respondents said they thought that "the Republicans in Congress ... are mainly interested in hurting Clinton politically," while 23% thought the Republicans were mainly interested in "in finding out the truth."17

The Senate vote acquitting Clinton was not seen as any more disinterested. CBS asked on the night of February 12, "Do you think that when it came time to vote on the articles of impeachment that most senators -- Democrats and Republicans -- voted based on what they really believed was the right thing to do, or do you think most senators voted based on politics and what was best for their party?" A mere 19% said most senators followed what the senator thought was right, while an overwhelming 74% said most senators followed politics and party interests (Republicans, 82%; Democrats, 69%; independents, 75%).18 In the same poll, 78% said they thought of "the whole impeachment process mostly as politics" ("mostly the investigation of possible crimes," 19%).19 Polls taken on the same day by The Los Angeles Times and Gallup also found more than 3 in 5 saying the impeachment process was undertaken primarily to "hurt Clinton politically."20

That is not to say the Senate process -- unlike the House impeachment -- was deemed not fair. In fact, Gallup, Pew and Washington Post polls in January and early February 1999 found modest majorities evaluating the Senate process as fair or expecting it to be so. On February 9, just days before Senate acquittal, 62% said they thought Clinton had gotten a fair trial in the Senate.21 At the same time, there was widespread belief the Senate would not vote to convict. On January 25, a Pew Research Center poll found that two-thirds of Americans thought the Senate would not vote to "remove Clinton from office."22

A key reason the majority rejected the process as a legitimate inquiry appears to be its belief that Clinton’s moral failings were not much different than most elected officials. The CBS/New York Times asked: "Do you think Bill Clinton has more… less… or about the same honesty and integrity as most people in public life?" Only 28% said less, while 65% said about the same (38%) or more (27%) (August 1998).23 In the same month, Newsweek found 24% thought Clinton lies "more often" than "the average politician," while 62% said he lies about the same (58%) or less often (14%).24

2 The majority felt that members of Congress should have voted on impeachment in a manner consistent with the views of their constituents.

While many members of Congress asserted that their constituents wanted their representatives to vote on impeachment according to his or her own conscience, a fairly strong majority of Americans felt members should vote according to the public’s views rather than the representative’s own judgment. 

Significantly, this attitude was not simply a function of how people feel about impeachment. Majorities favored sticking closely to public opinion, both among those who favored impeachment and among those who opposed it.

Also, a December 1998 CBS/New York Times poll asked, "When it comes to voting on the articles of impeachment, how much attention do you think members of Congress should pay to what the majority of Americans think about impeachment?" Eighty-two percent said a lot (62%) or some (20%), while 14% said not much (6%) or no attention at all (8%).25

3 The impeachment process exacerbated the already-low perception of government responsiveness to the public and the confidence that the government does what is right. 

According to poll questions that have been asked regularly over the last few decades by the National Election Studies, the impeachment process was accompanied by a sharp increase in the public’s feeling of being marginalized by policymakers. When NES asked "How much attention do you feel the government pays to what the people think when it decides what to do?" from November 4 to December 23, 1998, primarily before the House vote, 29% said "not much," compared to 22% in 1996. COPA polled at the end of January 1998, shortly after the House vote to impeach and shortly before the Senate vote to acquit. The percentage answering "not much" at that point hit an all-time high of 54% -- 13% higher than the question’s previous all-time high of 41% in 1982.26

In response to the question, "How much do you feel that having elections makes the government pay attention to what the people think?" NES in November 1998 found 46% saying "a good deal," up from 42% in 1996, perhaps due to the initial impact of the surprise loss of Republican seats in the elections that had just concluded. But when COPA asked the same question after the House vote, the percentage saying "a good deal" dropped to 30% -- 12% lower than in 1996, and 7% lower than its previous all-time low in 1988.27 Presumably, the public noted that the House Republicans proceeded with the impeachment vote despite the fact that the surprising Democratic gains in the 1998 elections were widely read as a criticism of a Republican-led effort to bring about impeachment. 

In response to the question, "How much do you trust the government in Washington to do what is right?" the percentage saying "just about always" or "most of the time" fell to 19% in the COPA poll. This level was seen frequently in poll results from 1993 through 1995, though not more recently. In polls taken in 1999, trust in government showed a recovery to the levels found before impeachment, presumably because the Senate did move toward, and finally made, a decision consistent with the public’s wishes. Hart and Teeter found 29% trusting the government in Washington to do what is right at the beginning of June 1999; Pew found 31% in February 1999; The Washington Post found 32% in February; and Gallup/CNN found 34% in February.28

4 Though the investigation and impeachment of Clinton ended with Senate acquittal -- a result consistent with the will of the majority public -- three out of four Americans, looking back, condemned the entire process. Most Americans say it was harmful to the country and that the public was a "loser" in the process, even though its majority views ultimately prevailed.

At the close of the process that saw Clinton’s acquittal by the Senate, the public had little inclination to look back on the experience as affirming either the workings of government or the public’s own role. On February 12, the day the Senate voted to acquit, more than 3 in 5 (62%) told CBS News they felt "the country would have been better off if the investigation of these charges had never started." Just 34% disagreed.29 In a CNN/USA Today poll (February 12-13, 1999), an overwhelming 74% felt in retrospect that the impeachment process had been very (32%) or somewhat (42%) harmful to the country. Only 26% said it had been not too harmful (16%) or not harmful at all (10%).30 Pew Research (February 18-21) found 63% felt the process had "hurt the country" a great deal (31%) or a fair amount (32%) (not very much, 24%; not at all, 12%).31

The impeachment process left a majority of Americans alienated and dissatisfied. In February 1999, The Washington Post found 60% were either "angry" (22%) or "dissatisfied but not angry" (38%)  with "the way the impeachment and trial process worked," with  just 13% "pleased" and 26% "satisfied but not pleased." 32  Pew found 50% had a less-favorable opinion of "the political process," while just 6% had a more-favorable view (same, 40%).33  Though 63% felt "public opinion has prevailed" (not prevailed, 34%),34 52% still said the American public had been a "loser" in the process, and only 42% said it had been a "winner."35

In retrospect, it appears there may have been some slight moderation of the public's criticism of the impeachment process. In March 1999, Gallup found that a solid majority (61%) still approved of the Senate's vote to acquit, although that was slightly lower than just after the vote.36 With regard to House's vote to impeach, the Pew Research Center has found that a modest majority still believes the House "should not have impeached Clinton" -- most recently 55% in September 1999.37 Yet, in December 1999, Gallup used a very detailed question describing the impeachment process. Upon hearing a careful recapitulation of the Constitutional steps involved in impeachment, respondents split evenly on the House's action: 50% approved, and 49% disapproved.38 This may be because, in the context of the whole process, some Americans who were disappointed that the censure option was not pursued expressed more sympathy for the choice to impeach, though not necessarily to remove the President from office.

5. Both political parties were seen as complicit in producing a highly partisan and dysfunctional process and neither party is likely to benefit.

As the Senate trial concluded, many political commentators suggested that Republicans would pay at the ballot box in 2000 for their pursuit of impeachment. Some data certainly pointed to that conclusion. In early February 1999, for example, a CBS/New York Times poll found 62% of Americans agreeing "the Republicans in Congress are out of touch with what most Americans want to happen with the impeachment of President Clinton."39

However, other data suggest the public believes both parties behaved in a partisan and irresponsible manner, and it appears neither Republicans nor Democrats will benefit from the impeachment process. In February 1999, Gallup asked whether President Clinton's supporters and opponents "were acting more on the basis of principles, or more on the desire to gain political advantage." Very large majorities said both the President's opponents (72%) and supporters (66%) were driven by politics rather than by principles.40 Just as the Senate votes were cast, solid majorities said that the impeachment ordeal would not affect their votes for House, Senate and the Presidency. Those saying it would make them more or less likely to vote for Democratic or Republican candidates were virtually even.41 Moreover, in July 1999, the Pew Center found that while a significant minority thought that members of Congress should not be reelected based on their votes for or against "impeaching and trying President Clinton," a majority believed members' votes for or against impeachment should not keep them from being reelected.42