|
Report Sections
1) Introduction
2) Rejection of the Dominant World Leader Role
3) Support for Cooperative Engagement
4) Working through the UN
5) Relying on Multilateral Approaches
6) Collective Security
7) Working through NATO
8) Concerns About Whether the US is Contributing its Fair Share
1) Introduction Back to top
A review of polling data reveals little evidence that the American
public is going through a phase of wanting the US to withdraw from
the world. Historically, a substantial minority of Americans have
registered support for such a position. But with the end of the
Cold War, there is no real evidence that this has become a majority
position and only scant evidence that this minority has even increased
in size.
Perhaps most significant is trend line data derived from poll questions
that have been asked in the exact same form over many years. For
example, various polling organizations have for several decades
now posed the question, "Do you think the US should take an active
part in world affairs or stay out of world affairs?" During the
Cold War, Americans rather consistently, by a two-to-one margin,
embraced the position that the US should "take an active part."
With the end of the Cold War (usually associated with the turn of
the decade) this attitude has remained largely unchanged except
for an upward spike around the time of the Gulf War. Most
recently, in a June 1999 poll by Gallup, 61% said
that the US should "take an active part," with just 34% saying the
US should "stay out" of world affairs.
As a general rule when respondents are presented just one argument,
rather than a pair, and asked whether they agree or disagree, there
is a stronger tendency to agree. Nonetheless, trend line questions
that pose one-sided arguments in favor of disengagement are consistently
rejected by the majority. Over the last decades, the majority has
rejected by a two-to-one margin the argument that "we should go
our own way in international matters, not worrying too much about
whether other countries agree with us or not." Most recently, in a September 2000 poll conducted by the Center
on Policy Attitudes, 66% rejected
this argument. Since 1956 the National Election Study has presented
the argument: "This country would be better off if we just stayed
home and did not concern ourselves with problems in other parts
of the world." In November 1998 an overwhelming 81% disagreed.
On the other hand, one-sided arguments affirming the value of engagement
receive overwhelming support. Echoing the above-mentioned pair of
statements, Times Mirror repeatedly over a number of years presented
the argument: "It’is best for the future of our country to be active
in world affairs." During the Cold War years approximately nine
out of ten agreed. This proportion was unchanged in 1994, and 1997,
with 91% agreeing in 1997. In the 1990s there was a marked increase
in the percentage saying that they agree with this position "completely"
(48% in 1997). Most recently, 88% agreed in October
1999 (45% strongly).
Poll questions that do elicit a seemingly isolationist response
are those that ask respondents to prioritize international and domestic
problems: domestic problems are almost always assigned a higher
priority. For example, a September 1997 Pew poll found that an overwhelming
72% agreed that "we should not think so much in international terms
but concentrate more on our own national problems and building up
our strength and prosperity here at home" (68% in March 1999). Since the respondent only
has the option of agreeing or disagreeing, the response may only
tell us that he or she wants to put more emphasis on problems at
home, not necessarily that he or she wants to reduce overseas efforts.
The fact that other poll responses show majority support for overseas
engagement lends support to this interpretation.
Furthermore, contrary to the widespread idea that Americans do
not like to see their elected representatives devote time to international
problems when there are problems at home, the majority feels they
should spend a substantial portion of their time on world affairs.
In a June/September 1996 PIPA poll, the median respondent felt that
the president should devote 30% of his time to international issues,
while a congressional representative should devote 25%.
The majority of Americans also tends to approve of more concrete
forms of international engagement. For example, there seems to be
substantial support for maintaining a strong US diplomatic presence
in the world. In a June 1996 PIPA poll, when presented a pair of
opposing arguments, only 36% opted for the argument favoring taking
a more isolationist approach to world affairs.
Other sections of this website explore attitudes on a variety of
other concrete forms of engagement. In each case a fairly strong
majority of Americans is supportive. The section on the United Nations
shows that an overwhelming majority supports US involvement in the
United Nations and would like to see the UN become stronger. The
section on peacekeeping shows that a fairly strong majority supports
UN peacekeeping and US participation in it, though they may have
reservations about the potential success of some specific missions.
Strong majorities do criticize aspects of the US foreign aid program,
while grossly overestimating its size, as is discussed in section
on foreign aid, but overwhelming majorities embrace foreign aid
in principle and only a tiny minority wants to eliminate it.
2) Rejection of the Dominant World Leader Role
Back to top
While most Americans clearly reject the idea that the US should
withdraw from the world, there is nonetheless criticism of the current
US role in the world. A very strong majority feels that the US is
playing the role of dominant world leader, or hegemon, more than
it should be.
This feeling is particularly pronounced in the rejection of the
US playing the role of ‘'world policeman.' In focus groups, respondents
spontaneously made this argument. In COPA's July 2000 poll, 68%
said "the US is playing the role of world policeman more than it
should be." This rejection of a world policeman role for the US
has been in place for some time. Even at the height of the Gulf
War in March 1991, asked whether "the US should be playing the role
of world policeman," 75% said "no" with just 21% saying "yes". While
the "world policeman" idea fared a little better when it was later
re-asked, it was always rejected by majorities (60%, February 1992;
57%, January 1993; 53%, March 1999, Los Angeles Times). In a June
1995 ATIF poll, when asked who should be "the policeman of the world,"
only 19% of respondents said the US, while 76% said the UN.
Rejection of the world policeman role appears to be sustained by
the public's belief that other countries have grown overly dependent
on the US for their defense. When asked, "Do you feel that countries
that receive protection from US military capabilities are doing
enough to protect themselves, or do you feel that they rely too
much on the US?" an overwhelming 89% said that these countries "rely
too much on the US" (PIPA, November 1995).
Polls have also asked whether the US has the ability to play the
role of "world policeman--that is, to fight violations of international
law and aggression wherever they occur." The number saying "no"
grew from 47% to 63% between 1991 and 1994.
Preserving the world leader role for the US has also not been an
effective rationale for engagement. A December 1995 CBS/New York
Times poll provided four different reasons to send US troops to
Bosnia, asking whether they were "good enough" or not. The lowest-scoring
reason of the four was "maintaining the United States role as a
world leader," which only 29% found "good enough." The highest-scoring
reason, embraced by 64%, was based on humanitarian considerations. In a comparable series
of questions about the Kosovo intervention in April 1999 (NPR/Kaiser/
Harvard), those who thought the intervention was in the national
interest (55%) were offered reasons why this was the case. Only
37% thought a "very important" reason was that "the credibility
of NATO is on the line," while 69% found "very important" a reason
linked to collective security ("It could prevent the outbreak of
a larger war)".
Opposition to a hegemonic role is so strong that if Americans are
only given the options of that role and disengagement, the majority
is likely to choose the latter. For example, in a January 1994 poll,
asked to choose between two opposing statements, only 27% endorsed
the argument: "Because the United States is the world's strongest
and richest country, it has the responsibility to take the leading
role in world affairs." Sixty-seven percent preferred the statement:
"Because the United States has limited resources and its own problems
at home, it needs to reduce its involvement in world affairs" (ABC/Washington
Post).
Americans also do not accept the idea that as the world hegemon
the US has a special obligation to carry a disproportionate burden
of the cost for keeping the peace. In PIPA's June 1996 poll, 80%
rejected the view that "as the sole remaining superpower...the US
[should] spend a larger percentage of its...GNP on defense than
its allies" in favor of the notion that "all of the industrialized
countries should spend about the same percentage."
Another factor undermining support for the world leader role is
that many Americans view the role as illegitimate and containing
the kind of hubris that led the US into Vietnam. In focus groups,
respondents regularly complained that the US has historically taken
an arrogant and overreaching attitude in the world. An Atlanta man
said:
We re acting like
we are the world's police, and why? No one asked us to. I mean,
we re spending money, going in and invading territories that, really,
we have no business going into.
3) Support for Cooperative Engagement
Back to top
If the majority does not want the US to withdraw from the world
or to be the dominant world leader, what does it want? The answer
is actually fairly clear: Americans support the US participating
actively in cooperative international efforts in which it would
contribute its fair share.
In a July 2000 PIPA poll, respondents were presented with three
options for America's role in the world. Just 15% chose the option
that "the US should withdraw from most efforts to solve international
problems." Similarly, only 11% embraced the idea that "as the sole
remaining superpower, the US should continue to be the preeminent
world leader in solving international problems." However, an overwhelming
72% endorsed the view that "The US should do its fair share in efforts
to solve international problems together with other countries."
In September 1997, Pew asked what kind of leadership role Americans
would like to see the US play in the world. Consistent with PIPA's
1996 results, only 11% embraced the isolationist position that the
US "shouldn't play any leadership role." Similarly, only 12% favored
the United States being "the single world leader." However, an overwhelming
majority of 73% favored the US playing "a shared leadership role."
Those who opted for a shared leadership role were also asked if
they wanted the US to be the most active, or about as active as
other leading nations, and 50% of the total sample preferred the
US be "no more or less active." When Times Mirror asked the same
questions in 1995 and in 1993, similar results were obtained.
A majority prefers
shared leadership with its limitations to a strategy of 'going it
alone,' even when reminded of the shortcomings of the international
institutions where shared leadership has to take place. In October
1999 PIPA asked respondents to choose between two statements. One
argued that
As the world becomes
more interconnected, and problems such as terrorism and the environment
are of a more international nature, it will be increasingly necessary
for the US to work through international institutions.
The other statement
pointed to well-known drawbacks of such institutions:
International institutions are slow and bureaucratic, and often
used as places for other countries to criticize and block the US.
It is better for the US to try and solve problems like terrorism
and the environment on our own instead.
Though this criticism had some resonance, only 39% said it came
closer to their point of view, while 56% preferred the statement
that "it will be increasingly necessary for the US to work through
international institutions."
When the public is asked about international engagement
and US leadership in a way that does not imply American hegemony,
it responds very differently than it does when hegemony is implied.
In an October 1995 Times Mirror poll, 64% said "the US should play
a leading role in dealing with the world's problems."
When US engagement is put in the context of cooperative efforts,
support can become overwhelming. For example, in an October 1993
PIPA poll, even just days after the deaths of the 18 US Rangers
in a firefight in Somalia, 88% agreed with the statement: "Because
the world is so interconnected today, it is important for the US
to participate, together with other countries, in efforts to maintain
peace and protect human rights" (89% when asked
again in February-April 1998).
4) Working Through the UN Back to top
As will be discussed in greater detail in the section on the UN,
this support for cooperative efforts leads to extremely strong support
for the UN and for US participation in it. There is overwhelming
approval for strengthening the UN and surprisingly little concern
that doing so will undermine US sovereignty. When asked, "Now that
the Cold War has ended, how important do you think it is to cooperate
with other countries by working through the UN?," 89% said it was
"extremely" (50%) or "somewhat" (39%) important (CBS/New York Times,
March 1994). A COPA poll asked this question
again in September 2000 and found a similar 81% saying it was "extremely"
(41%) or “"somewhat"” (40%) important. [In March 1999 65% agreed
that "the United States should cooperate fully with the United Nations";
only 26% disagreed (Pew).]
Even when respondents
are first reminded of the arguments against strengthening the UN
and other international institutions, majorities still prefer to
do so. In October 1999 PIPA began a series of questions by saying:
Some say that
because of the increasing interaction between countries, we need
to strengthen international institutions to deal with shared problems.
Others say that this would only create bigger, unwieldy bureaucracies.
Despite this introduction, 67% thought the UN needs to be strengthened
(does not: 30%) and 56% thought the World Court needs to be strengthened
(does not: 25%; don't know, 18%).
Similarly, the
same poll asked respondents to choose between two statements about
the future role of international institutions. Sixty-one percent
chose: "To deal with global problems such as terrorism and environmental
dangers, it will be increasingly necessary to get countries to change
what they do inside their borders." Only 35% preferred the alternate
statement, based on the value of sovereignty: "What countries do
inside their borders is their own business. International institutions
should not try to tell countries what they should do."
Support for working through the UN is particularly pronounced in
regard to the potential use of military force. In an April 1995
PIPA poll, an overwhelming 89% agreed that:
When there is a
problem in the world that requires the use of military force, it
is generally best for the US to address the problem together with
other nations working through the UN, rather than going it alone.
In contrast, only 29% embraced the argument that when military
force is needed "...it is better for the US to act on its own rather
than working through the UN, because the US can move more quickly
and probably more successfully."
In focus groups, many participants were unequivocal in their rejection
of the US acting alone to maintain world order. As a Kalamazoo woman
said "I think that s where...we always go wrong with this idea
of ‘'alone'...I mean, why do we have to be the one who is gonna
go in?"
As we will discuss in greater depth in the section of this website
on peacekeeping, strong majorities feel that UN peacekeeping is
a way to help alleviate the burden so that the US can limit itself
to a "fair share" of the effort. In the April 1995 PIPA poll, 86%
agreed with the statement: "The only way for the US to not always
be the ‘'world policeman' is to allow the UN to perform some policing
functions. UN peacekeeping is a way we can share the burden with
other countries."
5) Relying on Multilateral Approaches
Back to top
To truly move away from a hegemonic role and not withdraw from
the world requires that the US rely more on the other members of
a cooperative multilateral system. Strong evidence suggests that
Americans are ready to do so.
In a November 1995 PIPA poll, respondents were presented with some
of the complexities of relying on allies to carry part of the responsibility.
They were asked:
Right now the US
has a world-wide military presence which protects its interests,
such as oil in the Persian Gulf region. US allies who share these
interests, like the Europeans and Japan, also benefit from this
US military presence. Some people feel that these allies should
contribute more military forces to protect these interests so that
the US can reduce its burden. Others do not like this idea because,
they say, we cannot be fully confident that allies will effectively
protect shared interests. Do you favor or oppose the idea of allies
taking over some of these responsibilities so that the US can reduce
its presence abroad?
An overwhelming 79% favored having the allies take over some of
these responsibilities, with only 19% opposed.
To test this attitude with a concrete case, respondents were asked
to consider the possibility of having the Persian Gulf policed by
"a multinational naval patrol with ships from different countries
as well as the US." The complexities of this idea were also introduced
with the comment: "Most likely this would reduce the burden on the
US but also mean having a shared command with other countries."
Nevertheless, 72% said they would favor such a multinational naval
patrol over the US doing the patrolling on its own.
Respondents also showed strong support for relying on allies to
help protect third parties. When presented four different options
for dealing with US commitments to protect other countries, only
7% wanted to "withdraw" US commitments, while only 5% wanted to
maintain its commitments by acting "primarily on its own."
An overwhelming majority favored more multilateral approaches.
The largest number, 49%, favored the US maintaining its commitments
but "whenever possible" acting "together with allies or through
the UN." Thirty-eight percent wanted to see the US "change its commitments
to protect countries so that it is only committed to protecting
them together with allies or through the UN."
A separate sample was posed a similar question, but was asked instead
what capabilities US defense spending should support. Offered three
options, just 10% wanted the US to "only spend enough to protect
itself but not to protect other countries." Eighteen percent wanted
the US to "spend enough so that it can protect itself and other
countries on its own." A strong majority of 71% wanted the US to
"only spend enough to protect itself and to join in efforts to protect
countries together with allies or through the UN."
This question was asked again in July 2000 by COPA: at that time, 11% wanted the US
to spend only enough to protect itself; 13% wanted the US to spend
enough to protect itself and other countries on its own, while 74%
wanted the US to only spend enough to protect itself and to join
in multilateral efforts.
This preference for acting multilaterally was also very apparent
in PIPA s November 1995 poll, when respondents were asked about
defending Saudi Arabia and South Korea specifically. In most cases,
the majority would only want to defend these countries as part of
a multilateral operation. Scenarios were presented in which Iraq
invaded Saudi Arabia and North Korea attacked South Korea. In each
case, half the sample was asked if it would favor "the US intervening
with military force to stop this aggression by itself, if necessary."
For Saudi Arabia 60% of respondents said they would favor such action,
but only 33% said they would favor it for South Korea. When this
was followed up with a question about whether respondents would
"favor the US contributing military forces together with other countries
to a UN-sponsored effort to reverse the aggression," support jumped
up to 77% for Saudi Arabia and 70% for South Korea.
When this procedure was reversed so that respondents were first
asked about participating in a multilateral operation, 76% favored
it for Saudi Arabia and 68% favored it for South Korea. When they
were asked, "If other countries in the UN declined to participate,
would you favor or oppose the US taking action by itself?," only
33% favored taking action in Saudi Arabia and 21% in South Korea.
This low support for unilateral action is confirmed by Chicago
Council on Foreign Relations' November 1998 survey, which asked
questions that did not mention any allies and found 46% favoring
the "use of US troops if Iraq invaded Saudi Arabia," and only 30%
favoring the use of US troops if North Korea invaded South Korea.
For multilateral efforts to effectively reduce the demands on the
US, these efforts would ultimately need to draw on three of the
most advanced countries in the world--Japan, Germany, and Russia.
Because of fear of their military potential, as well as practical
concern for constitutional limitations on Japan and Germany, including
these countries in military operations has been controversial. However,
the majority of the American public seems quite clearly in favor
of doing so.
Respondents were asked if they would like to see Germany or Japan
contribute troops or just money in the event a UN-sponsored military
force is formed to deal with a threat to Persian Gulf oil supplies.
For Germany, only 23% favored simply contributing money, while 70%
favored contributing troops. For Japan, 37% favored simply contributing
money while 60% favored contributing troops. When respondents who
favored the money-only option were asked, "What if this would mean
that the US would then need to contribute more troops," the number
holding to the position that Germany should not contribute troops
dropped to 9% and for Japan to 13%.
6) Collective Security Back to top
Underlying the public s support for the UN and multilateral approaches
to the problem of security, there is fundamental agreement with
the principle of collective security. In November 1995, PIPA presented
the following question:
The UN was established
on the principle of collective security, which says that when a
UN member is attacked by another country, UN members should help
defend the attacked nation. Some say the US should contribute its
military forces to such UN efforts because then potential aggressors
will know that aggression will not succeed. Others say the US should
not contribute troops to such efforts because American troops may
be put at risk in operations that are not directly related to US
interests. Do you think the US should or should not contribute troops
to UN efforts to help defend UN members if they are attacked?
Sixty-nine percent said that the US should contribute troops to
such UN efforts, while 23% said the US should not.
The principle of collective security has also been found to be
a potent argument in favor of US participation in a peacekeeping
effort in Bosnia. In a May 1993 PIPA poll, 68% found convincing
(45% very) the argument: “"The UN was established
around the principle of collective security which says that when
one nation attacks another, this is a violation of international
law and UN members have an obligation to help defend the attacked
nation. Since Serbia is making direct attacks on Bosnia as well
as sending weapons to the Serbian rebels, members of the UN should
help defend the Bosnian government."
7) Working through NATO Back to top
The enthusiasm for multilateral approaches to security does extend
to NATO as well. In a December 1995 Wirthlin Group poll, a very
strong 76% said that it is important for the US to be "an active
member" of NATO (though not quite as much as the 82% who felt that
way about the UN). In September 1996, PIPA found that 67% felt that
NATO is "essential to our security."
Attitudes about NATO expansion also reflect support for the general
principle of collective security and multilateral cooperation. In
several polls, support for expanding NATO to include Eastern European
countries has ranged from a plurality to fairly strong majorities,
largely depending on the wording of the questions (PIPA September
1996, February 1998; Pew January 1997, September 1997, March 1998).
But most revealing are the responses to other questions. In the
September 1996 PIPA poll, ten arguments in favor of NATO expansion
were presented, and respondents were asked to rate them. The most
popular argument, rated as convincing by 77% (with 48% feeling that
way strongly), was that, "It is better to include Eastern European
countries rather than to exclude them, because peace is more likely
if we all communicate and work together" (February 1998: 80%).
The second strongest "pro" argument was based on a core principle
of collective security: 69% found convincing the argument that "It
is important for potential aggressors to know that they cannot get
away with conquering countries" (February 1998: 75%). Sixty-five percent also
found convincing (28% strongly) the argument that through expansion
"NATO will be in a better position to resolve conflicts between
[Eastern European] countries."
The least popular arguments in favor of NATO expansion were those
that stressed the Russian threat and the geopolitical competition
with Russia. The argument that won fewest supporters, found convincing
by just 35%, was that "Russia is very weak these days and this creates
an opportunity for NATO to expand into Eastern Europe and consolidate
our victory in the Cold War" (unconvincing 61%; February 1998: convincing 34%, unconvincing 60%).
Among the ten arguments against NATO expansion the most popular,
rated convincing by 62% (31% strongly), was that NATO is still too
much a military alliance and not inclusive enough. It said: "Instead
of expanding NATO, something new should be developed that includes
Russia rather than treating Russia as an enemy" (February 1998, 60%).
Perhaps what makes most clear the strength of the majority s collective
security orientation is the majority support for including Russia
in NATO. CNN/USA Today found 54% support (January 1994) for the
idea, the Fletcher School found 62% support (April 1996), and PIPA found 51% support (February
1998). PIPA also asked about including Russia in NATO
once Russia has demonstrated that it is a stable democracy support
reached 64%.
This inclusive attitude has not, however, undermined support for
protecting allies against aggression. In the PIPA poll, respondents
were asked how they would feel about contributing US troops to defend
Poland against an attack by Russia, assuming that Poland had been
admitted to NATO 69% said they would support doing so.
Though polling results tell a fairly clear story, it should be
noted that for many Americans, this consensus for cooperative engagement
is not fully crystallized. In focus groups, when participants complained
that the US was playing the role of dominant world leader or that
the US was doing too much, they often made statements that sounded
isolationist. But then the same individuals would also strongly
reject the idea that the US should withdraw from the world. When
they, or somebody else in the group, tried to balance these concerns
by articulating a "fair share" role for the US in multilateral efforts
to promote peace and progress, a strong consensus usually emerged.
8) Concerns About Whether the US is Contributing
its Fair Share Back to top
Among Americans there is a widespread belief that the US is doing
more than its fair share internationally.
COPA's July 2000 poll asked whether "In recent efforts to
solve world problems, as compared to other countries, do you think
the US has done its fair share, more than its fair share, or less
than its fair share?" An
overwhelming 71% said the US had done more than its fair share;
only 24% thought it had done its fair share; and a miniscule 3%
thought it had done less than its fair share.
In focus groups, some participants immediately launched into this
argument. Polls have found that 60% feel the US pays more than its
fair share for "UN activities" (June 1995, Times Mirror), 50% feel
the US is paying more than its fair share for UN dues (June 1996,
PIPA), 60% said the US contributes more than its fair share of troops
to UN peacekeeping (April 1995, PIPA), and 81% feel the US gives
more than it should as compared to other industrialized countries
for development assistance (January 1995, PIPA). When asked
in February-April 1998
whether the US and the European countries are each doing their fair
share in maintaining peace in the world, 81% said the US was doing
more than its fair share.
But these judgments of unfairness seem to rest on major misperceptions,
because polls show that many Americans dramatically overestimate
the US share of international efforts. The median respondent in PIPA's February-April 1998 poll estimated
that the US contributes 60% of all the aid given by the wealthy
countries to "poor countries to help them develop their economies."
In fact, the US gives 13% of development aid, according to the OECD.
In the April 1995 poll, the median respondent estimated that the
US was contributing 40% of all UN peacekeeping troops, while the
actual number at the time was only 4%. In the January 1995 PIPA
poll, 81% estimated that the US contributes more of its GNP to development
aid than most other industrialized countries, whereas the US gives
the lowest percentage of all.
Particularly interesting is the fact that when Americans are asked
to set an appropriate US share, they often set a level much higher
than the actual level. For economic aid to developing countries
given by all wealthy nations, the median respondent in the February-April
1998 PIPA poll said that the US should give about a 40% share--more
than twice the actual amount. In January 1995, 81% said the US should
give about the same amount or more of its GNP for development aid
than other industrialized countries, and in April 1995, the median
respondent said the US should contribute about 20% of all the troops
to UN peacekeeping--both dramatically higher than the actual levels.
When Americans are given correct information about the actual levels
of US contributions relative to other countries, criticism falls
off sharply. After hearing in June 1996 that, in fact, the US contributes
25% of UN dues because the US economy is 25% of the world economy
as measured by GNP, 56% found this accounting fair, while just 37%
found it unfair. In an April 1995 PIPA poll, when asked how they
would feel about contributing 4% of the troops to UN peacekeeping
(the actual number at the time), only 9% of respondents thought
this proportion was too much.
The belief that the US is contributing more than its fair share
can obscure support for engagement in unpredictable ways. For example,
despite fairly strong support for the general principle of contributing
US troops to peacekeeping operations, until early 1998 most polls showed the public divided
on contributing troops to the peacekeeping operation in Bosnia.
In a January 1996 Pew poll, respondents were asked whether they
"approve or disapprove of President Clinton's decision to send 20,000
US troops to Bosnia as part of an international peacekeeping force,"
without stating that other countries would be supplying the majority
of the troops. Forty-eight percent said they approved, while 49%
said they disapproved. The same question was repeated with half
the sample in the June 1996 PIPA poll and produced a similar result--51%
approved, 44% disapproved .
In the PIPA poll, the other half sample was asked the question
in another way. They were asked to specify what percentage of the
Bosnia troops they would like to see the US contribute, with "none"
being a clearly stated option. In this context, 68% said the US
should contribute some troops, while only 30% said that the US should
contribute none. This suggests that some respondents in the standard
‘"approve-disapprove" question refrained from expressing support
because they disapproved of the level of US participation that they
assume to be the case not because they necessarily opposed participation
per se. This interpretation is confirmed by the finding that the
median respondent estimated that the US was contributing 40% of
the troops for the Bosnia operation, while among those who favored
contributing some troops, the median preferred level was 25%.
|